Charlie Cook Politics
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Where are the Republicans who might vote for a Democrat?
A big win for Democrats will require GOP defections. And those are likely to be in short supply.
May 22
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Charlie Cook
25
4
Underneath the weirdness, this midterm is playing to type
Don't fall for talk of vibes and waves.
May 14
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Charlie Cook
32
2
Have Republicans already bottomed out?
Given how many voters are locked into partisan lanes, there may not be that many more votes for the GOP to lose.
May 7
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Charlie Cook
38
6
Why American politics could benefit from a landslide
Because the parties are so fully sorted and evenly divided, voters rarely give them an unambiguous message about what they want. So they get gridlock…
May 1
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Charlie Cook
60
11
April 2026
Party defections are mostly a thing of the past
Federal candidates can typically rely on 90+ percent support from their party's base.
Apr 24
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Charlie Cook
16
1
For all their troubles, Republicans won't suffer from exposure
Democrats already have a sizable share of the House; there are only so many vulnerable Republican seats for them to pick off.
Apr 16
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Charlie Cook
21
7
Why you shouldn't overread the drop in Trump's approvals
He's lost about all the support he can lose without shedding his core Republican supporters—and that's unlikely.
Apr 10
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Charlie Cook
41
6
Democrats' rage is misplaced
They ought to look in the mirror for squandering their unified government of five years ago.
Apr 3
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Charlie Cook
48
17
March 2026
Age comes for us all—even politicians
The next five years will bring jarring generational change.
Mar 26
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Charlie Cook
33
6
A massive midterm wave isn't forming yet. Here's why.
Given how slim the majorities are in Congress, Republicans' exposure might be limited.
Mar 18
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Charlie Cook
78
25
A question for Maine Democrats: Do you feel lucky?
Senate contender Graham Platner is about as untested as a candidate can be in such a key race.
Mar 12
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Charlie Cook
31
6
Can the parties crack their bases' code during the primaries?
After a month or so, we will have a better idea of just how self-indulgent each party’s primary voters are this year.
Mar 6
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Charlie Cook
12
1
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