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Margin-of-error races as far as the eye can see
This is your regular reminder that close races tend to break in one direction.
 • Charlie Cook
There is no ‘blue wave,’ but there is a ‘red undertow’
Where the election is about Trump, he's creating a current that could pull Republicans under. But in some key races, he's not the focus.
 • Charlie Cook
Alaska poll is the latest demoralizing blow for GOP
Democrats last won a Senate seat there in 2008, and they last scored a gubernatorial victory in 1998. They could win both this year.
 • Charlie Cook
Sununu, Marshall represent the GOP's best- and worst-case scenarios
Trump carried 20 of the 22 Republican-held Senate seats now up for reelection by double digits. It may not help.
 • Charlie Cook
When a nightmare scenario becomes the most likely scenario
Things are now officially bad for Republicans. It's just a matter of degree.
 • Charlie Cook

August 2026

Can Democrats find enough defectors to vote their way?
Their candidates will win almost every blue voter, and the lion's share of independents. It may not be enough in key Senate races.
 • Charlie Cook
You can’t repeat the elections past
So we beat on, electoral boats against the current, borne back ceaselessly into the past.
 • Charlie Cook
The purple-state problem
Swing states might be in the ideological center, but data shows they may be closer to one end than the other.
 • Charlie Cook
The Morning after Michigan
The fight over control of the U.S.
 • Charlie Cook
Blue Chip Quality Polling
As serious midterm election watchers await the results in the Michigan Democratic Senate primary, I wanted to get several documents off my plate and…
 • Charlie Cook

July 2026

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