Democrats still need the majority of toss-ups to go their way
The party currently has 205 solid, likely, and lean seats in its column. The GOP has 212—closer to the magic number of 218.
It is always possible for a cataclysmic event like 9/11 to upend the state of American politics, but failing that, it’s unlikely that anything will change the fundamental dynamics between now and the Nov. 3 election. Big shifts in momentum and direction often occur in presidential election years, but in midterms the table is set as early as the preceding year. Those dynamics more or less parallel the standing of the sitting president.
In the 574 weeks since Donald Trump descended the golden Trump Tower escalator to announce his presidential candidacy, thousands of impressions, positive and negative, have been left with Americans. At this point, there is little volatility in his numbers; his stock trades in a fairly narrow range, with most national approval ratings currently between 37 and 42 percent. Among only Democrats, his approval ratings are in the mid-single digits; independents approve of him in the 20s, and Republicans in the 80s.
It’s a decent bet that when early votes are being cast four months from now, only the most problematic or accident-prone Democratic nominees will be in danger in the blue-hued, decidedly Democratic states and districts; there are very few defections these days, particularly in midterm elections. The combination of a home-field advantage in a favorable constituency and the strong partisan winds should make these races not-so-fair fights.
A full House with no vacancies means 218 seats is the magic number for a majority. Using the current Cook Political Report House ratings, there are 182 districts in the Solid Democratic category, 11 more are Likely Democrat, and 12 more are Lean Democrat, giving Democrats an edge in 205 seats, 13 short of 218.
On the Republican side, there are 186 seats rated Solid Republican, 18 more in the Likely Republican column, and eight that are Lean Republican, putting them at 212, six short of a majority.
Eighteen races are rated Toss Up. So Democrats must win 13 of the 18 to reach the magic 218. If they win all 18, they’ll hit 223.
With the prevailing winds, Democratic candidates in most states and districts will outperform their 2024, 2022, and 2020 counterparts. But, particularly in red districts, will they run enough ahead of the normal party performance to actually win? It is one thing to exceed the norm, maybe in some cases getting to 47 or 48 percent, or 49 percent. But for a Democrat running in a red state or district, the closer they come to 50 percent, the more natural resistance increases. Each point is incrementally if not exponentially more difficult to gain than the last.
That’s partly because in a state with a strong, natural partisan tilt, those who consider themselves independents tend to lean in the prevailing direction of the state. In other words, voters in Alabama or Texas who consider themselves independent are more likely to have a slight tilt to the right than independents in California or Massachusetts. The local political environment bleeds somewhat into the ranks of independents.
And let’s add one more relatively new consideration: Any Democrat running in a deeply red state or district can expect at least the possibility in a photo-finish race of local election officials or judges being less hospitable to the opposition party.
In the Senate, the only competitive blue-state Senate races are in Republican-held Maine, and the open, Democratic-held seats in Minnesota and New Hampshire. In a fair-fight year, or a bad year for Democrats, Minnesota and New Hampshire could easily become problems for Democrats. In this environment, they may be worth keeping an eye on but they’re not near the top of Democrats’ worries. The real blue-state problem for Democrats is in Maine, where Sen. Susan Collins is seeking a sixth term despite the state’s Democratic proclivities. The race is likely to come down to whether the focal point is Trump, who is pretty unpopular in the state, or on Democratic challenger Graham Platner. If it’s the former, Platner and Democrats should win; if it’s the latter, Collins will get her sixth term.
Just as in House races, the prevailing winds could get Democrats in red states into the high 40s in Senate contests, but maybe not higher.
Then there are the purple, swing states. Democrats are running former Gov. Roy Cooper in the open North Carolina seat. He’s a pretty strong favorite against former Republican National Committee Chair Michael Whatley. The race Democrats need to really worry about is in Michigan; the wrong nominee can make a race that looks somewhat promising into a complete disaster.
Parties whose base is consumed with hatred toward the opposition can hold distorted perspectives, and their idea of electability may be slightly skewed. Party stalwarts can struggle to put themselves in the shoes of the swing voters needed to actually win a competitive race. This is what happened to Republicans in 2022 and has happened before. There is a danger of Democrats nominating blue candidates in purple and red states, just as there is for Republicans to choose red candidates in purple and blue states. In my mind, that is the single biggest obstacle for Democrats this year: The party’s passion may reside much further to the left than that of the swing voters who will actually decide competitive races.