There are plenty of reasons for Republicans in both the House and Senate to feel more than a bit of angst, though the reasons are different in each chamber.

On the House side, Speaker Mike Johnson would be well advised to require all Republicans in theHouse to show that they are up to date on all their vaccinations. Even so much as a bad cold or flu season could tip the GOP into minority status before the 2026 calendar year even begins.

Comparisons can be tricky because vacancies used to last longer and members used to be more wont to vote across party lines, but the Republican majority of 220-215 when the 119th Congress opens will be as close as any House in modern times, certainly since it expanded to 435 members in1913. In reality, it’s effectively even closer than that.

Take the resignation of Rep. Matt Gaetz into account, and that brings the GOP down to 219 seats until after an April 1 special election. Two more vacancies, created by Rep. Michael Waltz of Florida, nominated to be Trump’s national security adviser, and Rep. Elise Stefanik, nominated to be ambassador to the United Nations, will take the Republican conference down to just 217 seats.

Meanwhile, on the Senate side, there are more than a few Republicans in increasingly uncomfortable situations. Don’t bet on Gaetz, the erstwhile pick for attorney general, being President-elect Trump’s only Cabinet or senior official pick to trip up en route to Senate confirmation. There are still at least five more likely nominees in varying degrees of danger, some perhaps only one major revelation away from the same fate that met Gaetz.

Many Republicans in the Senate are less than thrilled to be voting on the nominations of former Rep.Tulsi Gabbard to become director of National Intelligence, Pete Hegseth for Defense secretary, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to be Health and Human Services secretary, Mehmet Oz for administrator of the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, or Kash Patel to be FBI director.

These Senate Republicans are not necessarily anti-Trump or anti-MAGA, and they genuinely believe that a president of their party has the right to, within reason, choose his top officials. Their reservations have less to do with ideology and are more about basic fitness and qualifications. Those hang-ups are about to run headlong into a reluctance to incur Trump’s personal wrath or the enduring animosity of those in the MAGA movement, which would all but guarantee opposition in their next Republican primary election.

Of course, this group of reluctant Republican senators does not constitute all or even half of the 53 who will be sworn into office on Jan. 3. Indeed, the number is smaller than a dozen. But with so little margin for error, they’re more than enough to give the incoming administration—and their own leadership—headaches. Their hope is that, as with Gaetz, more nominations are withdrawn or abandoned before they’re forced to take a formal position. That’s why some of the dirt on these nominees is being uncovered and strategically leaked not by Democrats but by Republicans. The bestway to avoid a tough vote is for the vote to never occur.

Some are already suggesting that if Gabbard’s nomination actually makes it as far as a confirmation hearing, there would be an immediate call for the committee to go into executive session to consider classified information too sensitive to be leaked to news organizations.

Among some on the Republican side, there is a feeling that the more Trump can get away with at these earliest stages of a second term, the more emboldened he will be. The longer the leash, the more latitude he has to do things that make the lives of members in purple states and districts a holy hell. Only if he senses limits will he dial back and pivot toward something resembling normal in Washington.

The reality is that Democrats are among the least important figures in this particular drama. None of the 47 will face any real hit for opposing any nominee; indeed, they might invite primary opposition if they did back one or more. This is more a time for them to get a bag of popcorn and a pack of MilkDuds and enjoy the show. Many might even find it a good time to stop and reevaluate their historic aversion to the Senate’s filibuster rule. It could easily be their new best friend over the next couple of election cycles.

This article was originally published for the National Journal on Dec. 9, 2024.

Charlie Cook Politics

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