Why Peltola's entry may not change the Senate math
Like Sherrod Brown in Ohio, Mary Peltola is the Democrats' best possible recruit in Alaska. It may not get them over the hump.
Democrats were ecstatic Monday over news that former Rep. Mary Peltola will challenge Sen. Dan Sullivan in Alaska. There is no doubt that Peltola is Alaska Democrats’ strongest possible candidate, just as former Sen. Sherrod Brown is the best possible challenger to appointed Sen. Jon Husted in Ohio.
When a party is trying to capture a Senate seat, it is prudent to ask three questions. First, how have they fared in that state in the last three presidential races? Second, when was the last time that party won a U.S. Senate race in that state? Third, does that party have any statewide elected officials in that state?
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When the ‘hopeium’ wears off - Which party actually wins U.S. Senate races where?
Given how parliamentary things have gotten, the answers to those questions are key. Keep in mind, our elections are binary: One party wins, the other loses. Close only counts in horseshoes, hand grenades, and European-style coalition governments.
July will mark the 250th anniversary of our country’s break from Great Britain. But over the last 50 years, our politics have become virtually parliamentary, just like in the old country. Adages like “all politics is local” and “I vote the person, not the party” may have once been true, but no longer. The number of voters who either split their tickets or swing between parties from one election to the next is few and far between. That largely confines competitive Senate races to the seven purple states and, at most, a very few immediately adjacent blue or red states.
Even with Peltola and Brown running, it is unlikely that Democrats will capture either Alaska or Ohio. Donald Trump won Alaska by 13 points in 2024, 10 points in 2020, and 15 points in 2016. The only Republican senator from Alaska ever to lose reelection was Sen. Ted Stevens in 2008, when he was under indictment; the charges were later dismissed. The last Democrat to win before that was Mike Gravel in 1974, when Peltola was a year old. Peltola’s two victories both came in 2022—an August special election for Congress held under ranked-choice voting, and the regular election in November that year. In both cases, former governor and vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin was her chief rival.
In the Buckeye State, Trump won by 11 points in 2024, and by 8 points in both 2016 and 2020. Brown was reelected in 2018 but lost his bid for a fourth term in 2024. Neither Alaska nor Ohio has any Democrats holding statewide elective office, and neither Sullivan nor Husted has any obvious weaknesses.
It’s also unlikely that Democrats will be able to defeat Sen. Pete Ricketts in Nebraska, or capture the open seat in Iowa. Democrats have fallen on hard times in states with a substantial share of voters in small-town and rural areas.
The party hasn’t won a Senate race in Nebraska since then-Sen. Ben Nelson was reelected in 2006. Trump won there by 21 points in 2024, and by 25 and 19 points in 2016 and 2020, respectively. The primary reason that the 2024 Senate race was as close as 6 points was that the GOP incumbent, Sen. Deb Fischer, had pledged to serve only two terms. Her decision to run for a third term gave independent Dan Osborn a bit of a chance to get some traction, but not nearly enough to win. Ricketts looks stronger than Fischer did.
Iowa is also tough for Democrats. Since Sen. Tom Harkin was reelected in 2008, Democrats haven’t even come close. Trump won by 13 points there in 2024, and by 8 and 9 points in 2016 and 2020, respectively. The only Democrat holding statewide office is state Auditor Rob Sand, who is running a strong campaign for governor. If any Democrat is able to defy the partisan gravity in the Hawkeye State, it will be Sand.
Finally, any chance of Democrats winning the Senate seat in Texas depends on two outcomes. First, state Attorney General Ken Paxton must defeat Sen. John Cornyn in the GOP primary in March. Second, Democrats must nominate a candidate with the potential to appeal beyond their base. They had one, but former Rep. Colin Allred dropped out to run for a House seat, leaving Democrats to choose between either the very liberal state Rep. James Talarico or Trump-trolling Rep. Jasmine Crockett, who took the late Rep. Eddie Bernice Johnson’s Dallas-Fort Worth district. That seat has a Cook Political Report partisan voting index score of D+25, meaning it is impossible for a Democrat not to win there. Neither shows any potential to win over independent or soft Republican voters.
Democrats would be better advised to make sure they win a House majority and regard capturing control of the Senate as, at best, a four-year project. It is extremely difficult to see them gaining more than two Senate seats this year, which would take them to 49 seats in the next Congress. Even that is contingent upon Sen. Jon Ossoff winning reelection in Georgia, a Democrat defeating Sen. Susan Collins in Maine, and the party holding onto open seats in Michigan, New Hampshire, and Minnesota.
See chart content:
When the ‘hopeium’ wears off - Which party actually wins U.S. Senate races where?
For both parties, the most important single variable in this election is not whether Trump’s job-approval ratings move much in either direction (they probably won’t). The greatest threat to Democrats is their own base, just as the biggest threat to Republicans is their party’s base. In the hyper-competitive states and districts, the keys could be called the “three C’s”—candidate-constituency-compatibility.
In most places, it doesn’t matter that much who a party nominates because that constituency is virtually destined to elect a candidate of a certain hue. It’s a done deal that a Democrat will win in a solidly blue state or district, just as it is that a comparably red state or district will elect a GOP candidate. In at least four out of five states or districts, general elections are little more than formalities; any doubt is settled in the primary. And nothing can kill a Republican’s chances of winning a hotly contested race in a purple state or district like nominating a very red-hued candidate; similarly, nothing can cost Democrats winning a hot race in a purple state or district like nominating a strong blue candidate.