The separate political realities of red, blue, and purple America
Up and down the ballots, the numbers don't lie. But keep an eye out for New Hampshire to join the purple ranks.
Most everyone has embraced the current partisan configuration that has been in place since 2016: 24 red states tilting toward Republicans, 19 blue states leaning Democratic, and seven purple states in the middle, where battles are often fought and won.
President Trump carried all 24 red states in each of the last three elections, whereas all 19 blue states supported the Democratic nominees. In the seven purple states, Trump carried six in 2016: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin; Hillary Clinton prevailed in Nevada. Four years later, Joe Biden won all but North Carolina, then in 2024 Trump swept all seven.
These red, blue, and purple distinctions are not gimmicks or cliches; the groups are remarkably distinct, and their identities extend far below the presidential line on the ballot.
In the 24 red states, Republicans hold all 48 Senate seats, 22 out of 24 governorships, and all eight lieutenant-governor offices that are elected separately from the top of the ticket. Republicans hold all 21 popularly elected attorney-general and secretary-of-state offices, and majorities in all 23 partisan state Senate and House chambers (Nebraska’s legislature is both nonpartisan and unicameral). Last but certainly not least, Republicans hold 131 (77 percent) of the 171 U.S. House seats in the red states.
In the 19 blue states, Democrats hold 37 of 38 Senate seats, 17 of the 19 governorships, and five of the six separately elected lieutenant governorships. They claim 15 of the 16 popularly elected attorneys general, all 11 popularly elected secretaries of state, and majorities in both the state Senate and House chambers in 18 of 19 blue states. Democrats have 120 (66 percent) of the 183 U.S. House seats in those blue states (note Democrats’ smaller share in their states).
In the seven purple states, Democrats hold 10 of 14 Senate seats. Democrats also have five of seven governorships, five of seven attorney-general offices, and five of six popularly elected secretary-of-state offices. But curiously, Republicans have the upper hand in those seven states in terms of U.S. House seats, 49 out of 79 (62 percent). The GOP also holds majorities in five of the seven state Senate chambers and six out of seven state House chambers, as well as two out of the three separately elected lieutenant governorships.
These results raise some interesting questions. First, why do Republicans perform better than Democrats in the U.S. House, state Senate, and state House seats in the purple states, even though Democrats do better at the U.S. Senate and gubernatorial level in those seven?
Second, why do Republicans win a higher share of state legislative seats in blue states (35 percent of state Senate seats, and 38 percent in state Houses), than Democrats do in red states (23 and 27 percent, respectively)? Republicans also hold majorities in two blue-state legislative chambers (both in New Hampshire). In contrast, Democrats hold no such majorities in red states.
My hunch is that these results are the product of decades of Republicans investing far more money in local, county, and state party-building than Democrats, with the Obama years a key period when his party could and should have done much more. Indeed, the last time Democrats made down-ballot party-building a priority was during the years 2005-2009, when Howard Dean chaired the Democratic National Committee.
Another theory is that Republicans have done a better job of leveraging culturally conservative local issues down the ballot, while Trump has been more of a drag higher on the ballot. Still another idea is that GOP primaries have nominated too many MAGA-oriented candidates in those Senate and gubernatorial races who have not gone over so well with swing voters or who have dampened enthusiasm among non-MAGA Republicans.
While this 24-19-7 configuration has held up across three elections, the list of “tipping point” states is hardly carved into granite and, in fact, has evolved substantially over the last 25 years. If we look at presidential elections from 2000 through 2012, rank the states by victory margin on a percentage-point basis, and factor in the Electoral College votes required to reach 270, Florida and Ohio were among the tipping-point states in four elections; Kentucky, New Mexico, and Tennessee appeared three times; and Virginia twice. Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, Missouri, Montana, New Hampshire, New Jersey, and Oregon each made solo appearances.
None of those states figured into the tipping-state math in the last three elections.
The blue state that’s least like the others could well be New Hampshire. On the one hand, Democrats won New Hampshire in eight of the nine presidential elections from 1992, the exception being 2000 when the Granite State sided with George W. Bush. But below the top of the quadrennial ballot, Republicans have now won the governorship in five consecutive elections (New Hampshire and Vermont are the last remaining states with two-year gubernatorial terms, in each case with no term limits). The GOP has also won majorities in both chambers of the New Hampshire General Court (the Granite State’s legislature’s formal name) in five of the last six elections, the exception being Trump’s first-term midterm election in 2018. The GOP holds two-thirds of the seats in the state Senate and 55 percent in the state House; there is nothing like that in any other blue or red state.
This could be relevant next year because Democrats have an open U.S. Senate seat in New Hampshire, where Sen. Jeanne Shaheen is not seeking a sixth term. The Democratic nominee will almost certainly be Rep. Chris Pappas, who has represented half of the state in the U.S. House since his first election in 2018. The Republican nominee will likely be former Sen. John Sununu, the one-term incumbent whom Shaheen defeated in 2008. But Sununu must first defeat former Sen. Scott Brown, who won a 2009 special election in Massachusetts but lost his bid for a full term in 2012 to Elizabeth Warren. In 2014 Brown won the GOP nomination for the Senate in New Hampshire, losing to Shaheen by 4 points, in what was an excellent year for the GOP nationally.
All of this is to make two points: 1.) New Hampshire politics is remarkably intertwined; and 2.) given that Sununu’s father was a thrice-elected governor and chief of staff to George H.W. Bush, and his brother also served as governor, the Sununu name is not to be underestimated in the Granite State.
If John Sununu can flip the Senate seat state back into the Republican column, we may be making the case here in 2028 that New Hampshire is an eighth purple state.