The Morning After

Election Day 2025

In the wake of Democrats’ impressive sweep in Tuesday’s off-year elections, many should, but probably won’t, be rethinking their interpretation of the 2024 election.

In my column on Monday, I outlined ten yes-or-no questions as a guide to gauging how each party performed in the 2025 off-year elections. As of noon on Wednesday, nine of the ten keys had flipped in favor of Democrats; the last, whether Democrats would gain a super-majority in the New Jersey General Assembly, looks very likely, but there remain several uncalled races. By any measure, it was a bad night for Republicans. A discussion of these ten questions was proposed Monday night, and a copy of the original column is below.

2024 versus 2025

Tuesday’s results back up my oft-stated argument that the November 2024 election was a highly focused repudiation of President Biden, the Biden-Harris Administration, and, by extension, Vice President Kamala Harris, not the top-to-bottom repudiation of the Democratic Party that many have made it out to be.

To recap what actually happened in 2024, Democrats scored a net gain of two seats in the U.S. House but fell short of their goal of winning back a majority. It certainly was a disappointment for Democrats not to recapture control, but a gain of seats usually is not interpreted as an election loss. It was a disappointment. In both gubernatorial and Secretary of State races, there was no net change, not exactly a repudiation. There was a net loss of one Attorney General post, the top legal position in Pennsylvania, following Josh Shapiro’s election as governor. The net change in state legislative races was minuscule, with very small drops for Democrats, resulting in fewer than a one percent loss of seats held in both state Senate and state House races nationally.

The best case for the Democratic debacle proposition was the U.S. Senate; a net loss of four seats and control is certainly a loss. However, that overlooks the fact that three of the four losses were in deeply red states (Montana, Ohio, and West Virginia); arguably, Democrats shouldn’t have even held. More importantly, in the five purple states that had U.S. Senate races last year (Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin), Democrats won four out of five, with Bob Casey unseated by Dave McCormick in Pennsylvania. Two purple-state Democratic incumbents were re-elected: Nevada’s Jacky Rosen and Tammy Baldwin in Wisconsin, who held open seats in Arizona and Michigan. Democrats winning four out of five Senate races in purple states last year represented a continuation of a pattern that began with Donald Trump’s first term in office in 2017. Democrats have now won 17 (81 percent) of the 21 U.S. Senate races in the purple states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Interestingly, Democrats have also won 10 (71 percent) out of 14 gubernatorial races in those same seven states during that period.

The Biden Plunge of 2021

Biden’s 14-point drop in his Gallup Poll job approval between June and October of 2021, his first year in office, from 56 to 42 percent, never to rise above 45 percent again, long preceded major concerns about his age, health, and cognitive abilities that arose in 2023 and 2024. That drop and the lack of elasticity that soon became apparent meant that his Presidency was electorally doomed, long before most Democrats even realized they had a problem.

Biden’s popularity plummet could be attributed to his Presidency becoming mired in a political “Bermuda Triangle,” consisting of a porous border with Mexico that became clear in the first two months of his term in office, a cost-of-living, that soared within weeks of the first checks from the American Rescue Act hitting mailboxes and bank accounts, and in August, his seventh full month in office, a botched withdrawal from Afghanistan.

The border emerged very early as an enormous challenge for the new Administration, their insistence for almost three years that they lacked the legal authority to address the border issue, followed by doing in his last year in office exactly what they said they didn’t have the authority to do, became plain for all to see.

The sharp increase in the rate of inflation, which in 2021 exceeded the level of other OECD countries, and the belated hike in interest rates to combat the inflation, ultimately took the cost of living to a level 25 percent higher than it was when Biden took his oath of office in January 2021. Even when the inflation rate receded to more tolerable levels, most prices did not and have not, the scar tissue remains. The groups that were most economically vulnerable at the beginning of the Biden Administration, those most negatively impacted by soaring prices and interest rates, later became the groups that abandoned Biden, and eventually Harris, costing Democrats the White House. Contrary to the oft-repeated argument, these voters, who tended to be non-white, young, and male (check out the drop in college enrollment and graduation ranks among men compared with women over the last 50 years), did not move toward Trump or the Republican Party; they simply voted to punish the Biden-Harris Administration.

Many had mixed views about whether the U.S. should remain in or leave Afghanistan, but it was the execution of the withdrawal that damaged the Biden Administration too much. It bore far too close a resemblance to the unceremonious departure of Americans almost 50 years earlier, when Saigon fell.

The nexus of three elements in this triangle was competence, the handling of the border, stewardship of the economy, and execution of foreign policy, which undercut the credibility and confidence that the public had in their new President and team. The 2020 election amounted to a referendum on Trump’s four years in office, not an expression of confidence in Biden, the 2024 election, even with Harris taking over the top slot 107 days before Election Day, was a referendum on the Biden-Harris Administration, not a burning desire among swing voters to return Trump to the Oval Office.

Despite their often good intentions, the Biden Administration ended up being a failure, just as Trump’s first term had been. Our presidential general elections are binary, focusing on who is in power, rather than who is not.

This is not to say that Democrats don’t have major problems; however, they are not the same ones that are often stated, nor based on the actual 2024 results. Besides disappointment among swing voters with the performance of the Biden Administration, it was a disappointment among Democrats that their party had once again lost to Trump, which has led to them being critical of the national party and its leaders.

Defections from Democrats in the 2024 Presidential race

Many had made the case that certain previously Democrat-backing groups had shifted to Donald Trump or toward the Republican Party, ignoring that the change in voting patterns in that election may well have been people who had been particularly economically vulnerable, hurt by a cost of living that had gone up 25 percent during the Biden Presidency, and may have just been voting to punish Biden and Harris, not necessarily abandoning the Democratic Party. Reflecting on 2024, three major risk factors emerged: being non-white, being male, and being young. In the 2024 election, having one risk factor was a problem, having two was a significant problem, and having three was catastrophic. That did not occur in down-ballot races that year and does not seem to have happened on Tuesday either.

The 2025 Election Scorecard

Monday night, in my National Journal column, I listed ten yes or no questions to answer on Election Night as a way to score how the balloting went for each party, suggesting that if three or fewer answers were “yes,” it would be a bad night for Democrats, if it were eight or more, it would be a really good year for them. Nine out of the 10 are definitely yes; the outstanding one, whether Democrats reach 67 percent of the New Jersey State Assembly, looks very likely.

I explained that each one was not of equal difficulty, but the most challenging. The Virginia state Attorney General’s race, where Jay Jones, the Democratic candidate, had been hit with very damaging text messages and probably with the weakest statewide nominee in the Old Dominion in many years, was won by six points. Winning a trifecta in the state was challenging, and few thought Democrats would sweep all three statewide offices, given how flawed Jones was as a candidate and how competitive the other races had seemed to be.

Did Democrats meet their expectations on Tuesday, yes or no?

Below are ten statements. How many will turn out to be correct? The more are, the better the night is for Democrats. The lower the number, the better it is for Republicans.

While (usually New York City-based) network correspondents and analysts are putting too much attention on the New York City mayoral race, ignoring the simple facts that the 2026 and 2028 elections will be about President Trump and his agenda and priorities, Democrats and Republicans pitted against each other and largely decided in purple states, districts, counties, and precincts that generally don’t look at all like New York City. While Zohran Mamdani is certainly an interesting and newsworthy figure, his performance, 50.4 percent citywide, would be more impressive had he exceeded, matched, or even come close to the 67.7 percent that Kamala Harris won citywide in the 2024 presidential race. As Monday’s column noted, from a national political perspective, Mamdani’s campaign and performance were far more interesting than it was important. Admittedly, New Yorkers would likely take a different view.

The bottom line. Is it that one has to look very closely at some fairly obscure races to find any good news in the November 2025 election results? There are very good reasons Republicans have been doing what they have been doing to redraw Congressional boundaries before next year’s midterm elections. If the GOP wasn’t before, it is clear they now should be at DEFCON 1, at least in the U.S. House.

1. New Jersey Governor

Do Democrats hold onto the New Jersey governorship, yes or no? Yes, Democratic Rep. Mikie Sherrill defeated Republican former state Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli by 13 points, with 56.2 percent of the vote to 43.2 percent.

2. New Jersey State Assembly

Do Democrats win more than 65% of New Jersey state Assembly seats, the number they currently have, yes or no? Yes, before the elections, Democrats were on the verge of a super-majority in the 80-seat chamber with 52 seats to 28 for Republicans. It appears likely that the answer will be yes, as of 10:45 am on Wednesday, Democrats had won 49 (72 percent of those called), Republicans just 19, with no winner yet declared in 12. To reach 67 percent, Democrats would need to win five out of the 12.

3. Virginia Governor

Do Democrats win the Virginia governor’s race, yes or no? Yes, former Rep. Abigail Spanberger defeated Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears by 14.6 points, with 57.2 percent to 42.6 percent.

4. Virginia Lt. Governor

Do Democrats win the Lt. Governors’ race, yes or no? Yes, Democratic state Senator Ghazala Hashmi defeated Republican radio talk show host John Reid by 10.8 points, with 55.3 percent to 44.5 percent of the vote.

5. Virginia State Attorney General

Democrats win the state Attorney General’s race, yes or no? Yes, Democratic former state House Delegate Jay Jones defeated the incumbent Republican state Attorney General Jason Miyares by six points, 52.8 to 46.8 percent.

6. Virginia State House of Delegates

Democrats retain their majority in the state House of Delegates, yes or no? Yes, Democrats had held a narrow three-seat advantage in the House of Delegates, 51 to 48 seats. As of Wednesday morning, it appears that Democrats gained 13 seats, Republicans lost 12, giving Democrats a 64 to 36 (there had been one seat vacant before the election).

7. Virginia governing trifecta

Democrats winning the governorship and the House of Delegates; they already had the Senate, which wasn’t up in 2025, yes or no? Yes, Democrats captured the governorship and held onto their majority in the lower chamber, as well as the Senate, which was not up for election this year.

8. California redistricting Proposition 50

Congressional redistricting ballot initiative. Do Democrats Pass the Redistricting Ballot Initiative: Yes or No? As of Wednesday morning, with an estimated 75 percent of the ballots counted, the “yes” side of the ballot initiative was leading by 27.6 points, 63.8 percent to 36.2 percent.

9. Pennsylvania state Supreme Court retention

The three Democratic state Supreme Court Justices win retention (while the party affiliations of the Justices is not listed on the ballot, it is no secret who lines up with each side and has become extremely partisan). Yes, all three Justices won their retention race by almost identical margins, David Wecht by 22.2 points, 61.1 to 38.9 percent, the margin for Kevin Dougherty was 23 points, 61.5 to 38.5 percent, Christine Donohue was retained by a 23-point margin, 61.5 to 38.5 percent

10. Georgia state Public Service Commission

Democrats win both special elections to the state Public Service Commission (candidates run from a specific district but are elected statewide). Yes, both Republican incumbents were defeated. In District 2, Democrat Alicia Johnson unseated Tim Echols by 24.18 points, with 62.09 percent of the vote to 37.91 percent for Echols. Meanwhile, in District 3, the other GOP incumbent, Fitz Johnson, was defeated by Democrat Peter Hubbard by 24.54 points, with 62.27 percent of the vote to 37.73 percent for Johnson.

Gotham City

While (usually New York City-based) network correspondents and analysts are putting too much attention on the New York City mayoral race, ignoring the simple facts that the 2026 and 2028 elections will be about President Trump and his agenda and priorities, Democrats and Republicans pitted against each other and largely decided in purple states, districts, counties, and precincts that generally don’t look at all like New York City. While Zohran Mamdani is certainly an interesting and newsworthy figure, his performance, 50.4 percent citywide, would be more impressive had he exceeded, matched, or even come close to the 68 percent that Kamala Harris pulled (both Democratic and Working Family lines) to 30 percent for Trump (Republican and Conservative lines). Granted the mayoral race was a three-way race versus the presidential that was two-way, but it still puts Mamdani’s performance in a bit different perspective. As Monday’s column noted, from a national political perspective, Mamdani’s campaign and performance were far more interesting than it was important. Admittedly, New Yorkers would likely take a different view.

Conclusion

The bottom line. Is it that one has to look very closely at some fairly obscure races to find any good news in the November 2025 election results? There are very good reasons Republicans have been doing what they have been doing to redraw Congressional boundaries before next year’s midterm elections. If the GOP wasn’t before, it is clear they now should be at DEFCON 1, at least in the U.S. House.

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Original Cook column from Monday night

An early-warning system for the political winds

Look to these 10 questions Tuesday night to see if the political winds are calm, or if they may blow Republicans out of office next year.

Many are looking to Tuesday’s odd-year election as a bellwether for the 2026 midterm elections, to determine if the electoral winds are calm, a gentle breeze, a gale, or a hurricane, as measured on meteorologists’ Beaufort Scale.

Too many analysts—including some who should know better—have put far too much emphasis on the pair of odd-year gubernatorial races. This pair of contests is a very small sample indeed.

So I have devised my own scale. Here are 10 questions. The number of “yes” answers will tell you, on a scale of one to 10, whether Democrats had a horrible night (three or fewer) or if they’ll be singing “happy days are here again” (eight or more):

1. Do Democrats hold onto the New Jersey governorship?

2. Democrats currently have 65 percent of the New Jersey state Assembly seats. Do they win more than that?

3. Do Democrats win the race for Virginia’s governor?

4. Do Democrats win the Virginia lieutenant governor’s seat?

5. Do they win the Virginia attorney general race?

6. Do they retain their majority in the Virginia House of Delegates?

7. Do Democrats win a governing trifecta in Virginia, by winning the governorship and the Assembly? (They already hold the state Senate, but that’s not up for reelection until 2027.)

8. Does the ballot initiative that allows California to redistrict for partisan gain pass?

9. Do the three Democratic Supreme Court judges in Pennsylvania win reelection?

10. Do Democrats win both special elections to the state Public Service Commission in Georgia?

I know what you’re thinking: The New York City mayoral race is not listed. That’s true—and it’s because no single mayor’s race, anywhere, anytime, has been instructive about what would happen in a national election a year later. There is a difference between something being interesting and, at least for national politics, important; this race is more the former than the latter.

Now let’s look at the states individually.

New Jersey

Democratic Rep. Mikie Sherrill and Republican former Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli face off for governor in a state that is definitely more blue than red. In the major-party vote, factoring out all votes for independent or third-party candidates, Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, and Kamala Harris averaged 56.12 percent of the vote in the last three presidential elections, and Donald Trump received an average of 43.88.

Republicans have won the governorship eight out of the last 19 times, but each of those (Chris Christie being the last in 2013) occurred in a far less polarized time. The last Republican to win a U.S. Senate race in the state was Clifford Case in 1972, 53 years ago. The state’s Democratic tilt should give the party an edge, but one sobering statistic for Democrats is that the last time either party won the New Jersey governorship for a third consecutive term was in 1961.

Democrats are on the cusp of a super-majority in the state General Assembly, with 52 seats to Republicans’ 28.

Virginia

Virginia’s Democratic tilt is a bit less than New Jersey’s, where the party’s standard-bearers won an average of 53.64 percent of the major-party vote in the last three presidential elections, to 46.36 percent for Trump. Former Democratic Rep. Abigail Spanberger has enjoyed a pretty consistent lead over Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears.

Four years ago, when former Democratic Gov. Terry McAuliffe was seeking a second, non-consecutive term, he came up short with 48.64 percent of the vote to Republican Glenn Youngkin’s 50.58 percent. No doubt, President Biden’s plummeting job approval rating over the previous four months put quite a drag on McAuliffe. This time, it’s Trump’s lagging approval that is more likely to be an external factor, to the detriment of Earle-Sears.

Neither nominee for lieutenant governor is a household name in Virginia: Democratic state Sen. Ghazala Hashmi and Republican radio talk-show host John Reid are both fairly blank slates, making the race more likely to be more of a generic party fight, giving the Democrat an advantage. That would make a Democratic loss in this race more noteworthy.

The race for attorney general is the Democrats’ weak link, with a badly damaged former state House delegate, Jay Jones, fending off a variety of allegations, making a GOP win for Attorney General Jason Miyares more likely here.

The fight for control of the House of Delegates will come down to slightly more than a half-dozen seats. Democrats currently have 51 seats to 49 for Republicans. If Democrats win the governorship and hold the House of Delegates, that will give them a governing trifecta.

California

Readers of this column are almost certainly well-versed on the California ballot initiative to temporarily take redistricting away from the independent commission and allow Golden State Democrats to do to Republicans what the GOP is doing to Democrats in Texas and a few other places.

Initial polls showed that it might be close, that voters might not like the idea of ditching a good-government reform, even if only temporarily. But the vote has become an inevitable referendum on President Trump—not helpful in a state where he averaged just 38.3 percent of the major-party vote, while Hillary Clinton, Biden, and Harris averaged 63.81 percent. This should be a gimme putt for Democrats.

Pennsylvania

Pennsylvania is a bit trickier. State Supreme Court races are not conventional elections; the justices run for another 10-year term, like a pass-fail test, and their party is not officially designated on the ballot. It has nonetheless become highly partisan; anyone likely to vote will know that these are three Democrats running, and both parties are spending heavily to influence the outcome.

Local observers say that while around a quarter to a third of voters automatically vote no, justices are rarely given a thumbs down. In the three-quarters of a century of these races, only one justice failed to win retention, a Democrat in 2005. But things are much more partisan now, and no state is more evenly divided than the Keystone State.

Georgia

Georgia is one of only 10 states with publicly elected Public Service Commissioners, which is now a key office because electric rates will be among the top issues for the next few elections. Artificial intelligence is driving up the demand for electricity and the need to build capacity, with everyone wanting someone else to pay the lion’s share. Another oddity is that the five-member Public Service Commission hasn’t held an election since 2020, after which Voting Rights Act litigation prevented an election from being held until it was settled.

A PSC race in Georgia is a statewide election, though the candidates must live in certain districts to run for that seat. Both incumbents are Republicans. In District 2, Tim Echols is seeking another term and is opposed by Democrat Alicia Johnson. In District 3, Fitz Johnson is the GOP incumbent and Peter Hubbard is the Democratic challenger.

Republicans are favored to win both; no Democrat has won a statewide constitutional office since 2006 (U.S. Senate seats are not state constitutional offices). But rising electric prices are becoming a populist issue, and there are some indications that these races have tightened up.

The tests above are certainly not of equal difficulty; yet either party that gets close to acing all of them will definitely be having a very good night.