Senate map drives Democrats' push to gerrymander House seats

With slim hopes of retaking the Senate by the end of the decade, it's understandable that Democrats are threatening a tit-for-tat redistricting response over Texas.

It is distressing that Democrats have chosen to join the mid-decade gerrymandering war.

While it is certainly understandable how they chose this course, the only thing worse than having one major political party stoop to abandoning norms and regular order, choosing to no longer abide by any sense of fair play and civility, or acknowledge any respect for democratic values, is to have both parties do it.

Anyone who watched the way the process worked 40 or 50 years ago is appalled at what they see today; it is unrecognizable. But we know what to expect next: It will only get worse.

As much as I hate that Democrats have decided that “if you can’t beat them, join them,” look at the Senate electoral map to understand their motivation—their desperation, really. Considering how incredibly difficult their challenge is to recapture the Senate majority they lost last November, it is hard to blame them for pulling out all of the stops in the fight for the House. No one thinks it will be easy for Democrats to capture a Senate majority in either 2026 or, for that matter, 2028, and a deep dive into the numbers shows it to be far more difficult than most people can imagine.

Consider the seven purple, swing states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. That leaves 24 red states and 19 blue states. After Democrats lost three red-state seats in November (Sherrod Brown in Ohio, Jon Tester in Montana, and the open seat in West Virginia held by Joe Manchin), winning a Senate seat in a GOP state won’t be easy.

Only 11 current senators represent states the other party has carried even once in the last three presidential elections, and none were won by double-digit margins. Ten of the 11 are in purple states; the other is Sen. Susan Collins of Maine, a state that went for Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, and Kamala Harris—but again, all by single-digit margins.

Here is where the math gets really tough for Democrats who need a four-seat net gain to retake the Senate. Of 14 Senate seats in the seven purple states, Democrats already have 10, meaning that over two cycles, they would need to win four of the five non-red-state GOP seats that are up in 2026 or 2028. In 2026, other than Maine, the only Republican seat that is up and not in a red state is the open seat in North Carolina, where Sen. Thom Tillis is retiring. So, effectively, Democrats have to pick up both of those two (or make it up by winning a red state or two).

The magnitude of the challenge becomes clearer when considering that only five of the GOP seats are not in red states—those belonging to Sens. Collins, Tillis and Ted Budd in North Carolina, Dave McCormick in Pennsylvania, and Ron Johnson in Wisconsin. Democrats would need to capture four out of the only five non-red-state Senate seats that the GOP has, while not losing any of their six seats in purple states that are up in the next two elections—two in 2026 and two more in 2028.

Next year, Democrats will need to unseat Collins and win the open seat in North Carolina, all while holding onto the two purple seats they’re defending—the one held by Sen. Jon Ossoff in Georgia and an open seat in Michigan, where Sen. Gary Peters is retiring. And by the way, they can’t lose open seats in the light-blue states of Minnesota, where Sen. Tina Smith is retiring, and New Hampshire, where Sen. Jeanne Shaheen is stepping away as well.

Bottom line in 2026: Democrats can only make headway if they capture both Maine and North Carolina, hold onto Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota, and New Hampshire, and the nine seats they occupy in more solidly blue states. Then Democrats would need to extend their lucky streak into 2028 by unseating both GOP incumbents up in purple states—Johnson in Wisconsin and Budd in North Carolina—while, again, holding onto their own purple seats held by Sens. Mark Kelly of Arizona, Raphael Warnock of Georgia, Catherine Cortez Masto of Nevada, and John Fetterman of Pennsylvania, not to mention Sen. Maggie Hassan in the light-blue state of New Hampshire and nine more seats in deeper blue seats.

All of that is clearly a very tall order. Perhaps the most straightforward approach would be to win the presidential race, reducing the magic number of gains needed by one to three. This would allow a new vice president to break a 50-50 tie.

This all assumes they don’t capture a red state, which is becoming increasingly difficult. The least crimson of the red seats up in 2026 are, in order, those held by Sen. Dan Sullivan of Alaska (where Trump won in 2024 by a 13-point margin), Sen. Jon Husted of Ohio (Trump by 11 points), Sen. Joni Ernst of Iowa (Trump by 13), and Sen. Ashley Moody of Florida (also Trump by 13). Some might quibble about just how strong any of those four incumbents are, but even the two who are appointed—Moody and Husted—have won other statewide seats. Sullivan and Ernst have won a pair of Senate elections each, but not many people are winning Senate elections in states that the other party carried in the presidential race by double digits. In fact, the exact number of senators who have done so is zero.

For that very reason, the distinct possibility—some would say probability—of uber-controversial state Attorney General Ken Paxton beating Sen. John Cornyn in the March 3 Texas GOP primary offers a tantalizing opportunity for Democrats. Senate and House races have become so left-right, so parliamentary, with partisan voting for about 90 percent of the electorate so calcified, that unless a nominee of the politically dominant party is downright toxic, a double-digit presidential-performance deficit all but pre-ordains a Senate outcome.

Is Paxton so damaged that he’d be that vulnerable to a Democrat in a state that Trump won by almost 14 points? Maybe yes, maybe no, but Democratic chances against Paxton look far better than against Sullivan in Alaska, Husted in Ohio, Ernst in Iowa, or Moody in Florida. The only caveat would be if Ernst opts not to run again. Even then, since former Sen. Tom Harkin was last reelected in 2008, Ernst has been elected and reelected, and Sen. Chuck Grassley has been reelected three times without a Democrat coming even close. The only proven horse in the Hawkeye Democratic stable is state Auditor Rob Sand, who is running for governor.

It would take a heck of a year for Senate Democrats in 2026 to beat Collins, capture the GOP open seat in North Carolina, hold onto their own purple seats in Georgia and Michigan, and hang onto Minnesota and New Hampshire. They would then need to carry that lucky streak into 2028, winning the only Republican seats up in purple states that year, unseating both Johnson in Wisconsin and Budd in North Carolina, while still holding onto their own four seats in purple states.

Looking at this Senate map makes one realize how cornered Democrats are, arguably being forced to do the reprehensible on congressional redistricting because the alternative is horribly difficult. It’s not the decision that I would make, but it’s certainly hard to blame them.