Quantifying voter enthusiasm with eight months to go
The electorate looks to skew Democratic this year, and not much—especially not the State of the Union—will change that.
In the pantheon of overrated events, few can compete with the presidential State of the Union addresses. And yet, every year bloviators predictably proclaim SOTU speeches are immensely important. The truth is, they never have been and likely never will be.
Off the top of my head, the only truly memorable one was that of President Clinton’s in 1998, just six days after The Washington Post broke the story of his relationship with Monica Lewinsky. Like drivers rubbernecking while passing a car wreck, an estimated 53 million Americans tuned in that year, almost 12 million more viewers than the year before.
Historically, few Americans tune in to watch or listen to SOTU addresses, not surprising for a tedious wish list of policy priorities, boastful claims of what great things the president has done, and perhaps an aspirational flourish thrown in at some point along the way. My guess is that the percentage of people still tuned in after 10 minutes is far lower than at the beginning, and even fewer stick with it to the end. A share of sets still tuned in at the end surely belongs to those who fell asleep or left the room while it was underway.
Viewership skews toward members of the president’s party, tuning in to cheer their leader on; next would be followers of the opposition party, jeering just as vociferously. Few are pure independents, who don’t often read, watch, or listen to news or follow current events, anyway.
Ask yourself this question: Do you know anyone who does not hold firm opinions of President Trump, positive or negative? When President Biden was preparing to deliver his 2024 address, did you know anyone even slightly ambivalent about him? For nine or 10 registered voters out of 20, the question isn’t how they will vote, it is whether they will vote. The Pew Research Center’s Validated Voters Surveys show this very clearly. The 2022 midterm-election survey showed that those voters who identified as Democrats voted for their party’s House candidates over Republicans by 98 to 2 percent, while Republicans cast their ballots for the GOP House candidates over Democrats by 97 to 3 percent. When Democrats and those independents who lean more toward the Democratic Party were combined, the vote for Democrats was 96 to 3 percent. Similarly, when GOP identifiers and independents who leaned more Republican were combined, they voted 94 to 5 percent for Republicans.
In terms of motivation, voters for the party out of power are more motivated than those for the party in power. In 2018, during Trump’s first-term midterm, Republican identifiers made up 31 percent of the electorate, 4 points fewer than the out-of-power Democratic identifiers, who made up 35 percent (32 percent were independents). When partisans and leaners were thrown in together, Republicans made up 45 percent of the electorate, while Democrats and their leaners made up 51 percent.
This was also the case in 2022 when the shoe was on the other foot. The in-power Democrats constituted 32 percent of the electorate, the out-of-power Republicans 37 percent. When leaners were tossed in for each side, Democrats were at 47 percent, Republicans at 52 percent. This is one of the things that prove that the 2022 election wasn’t about a backlash against the Dobbs decision. If it were, it would have shown up in Democrats’ enthusiasm and turnout. Rather, the underwhelming showing for Republicans was more about their primary voters picking MAGA-oriented, exotic, and/or problematic nominees in about two dozen critical races, rather than picking nominees who had some potential to reach beyond their party’s base in purple states and districts.
As much as campaign operatives like to pat themselves on the back or stress their own importance, the truth is that ticked-off people vote at higher rates than people who are satisfied, complacent, or disappointed.
The biggest remaining variable in this election is the primaries. In the two or three dozen House races plus a half-dozen Senate races that really matter, if a party is self-indulgent and picks nominees who know only how to massage the erogenous zones of the party’s base rather than reach the 5 percent or so of voters who are pure independents, that will cost them critical races.
The CNN national survey released Monday morning tells the story of where voters’ heads are right now. Republicans approve of Trump’s performance so far by 82 to 18 percent. Democrats disapprove by 95 to 5 percent (mind the gap!). Critically, independents disapprove by 73 to 26 percent.
As of the deadline for this column Monday afternoon, the NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll had not released Trump’s approval ratings, but from data already released, the same conclusion can be reached. When respondents were asked whether the direction in which Trump is moving the country is a change for the better, a change for the worse, or no real change at all, 37 percent of registered voters said it was a change for the better, 56 percent said it was a change for the worse, and 6 percent said it was no change at all.
Among just Republican respondents, 82 percent said Trump had brought about change for the better (13 percent said it was a change for the worse); among Democrats, 89 percent said it was a change for the worse (7 percent said it was a change for the better), and among independents, 64 percent said things were worse, while just 27 percent said they were better. Keeping in mind that independents are the voters who will drive outcomes in most purple states and districts, those independent numbers are key. Any Republican in a blue state or district should focus on the number among Democrats. But conversely, because Republicans are hanging in with Trump to the extent they are, Democrats should expect no tailwind in red states, no matter the results in low-turnout, state legislative special elections.
Watch the State of the Union if you must, but if you have anything better to do, you might get an extra hour and a half or so of your life back.