Prevailing winds may not prevail in red states

The president's numbers are abysmal among Democrats and independents; but they remain strong among Republicans, making Democrats' task extra tough in red states.

For both Republicans and Democrats—the former frantically trying to hold onto their tiny 219-213 House majority, the latter equally desperate to recapture the Senate majority they lost just over a year ago—this is a time of both good and bad news.

For House Republicans, the good news is that they have about 11 months until the election, potentially giving them time to turn things around. The bad news is that there is no other good news for them. The dynamics for the GOP in the House are truly horrific.

Yes, there are far fewer competitive congressional districts than in past decades, narrowing the battlefield. That should make the kind of epic losses unlikely that we saw in 2010 (Democrats -63 seats), 1994 (Democrats -54 seats), 2018 (Republicans -48 seats), or 2006 (Republicans -30 seats). But while the chances of a catastrophic loss may be minimal, Trump’s approval ratings certainly put an average-size midterm loss of 20 seats in play.

For Senate Democrats, the prevailing political winds should boost their chances in races in light blue states like Maine, where Republican Sen. Susan Collins is trying to continue to be the only member of the Senate to survive in a state tilted toward the opposition party, as well as similar states with open Democratic seats, like Minnesota and New Hampshire.

Democrats should also feel some degree of hope that those same winds might well enable them to continue their strong, four-election record in purple swing states like Michigan and North Carolina, where there are open seats, or in Georgia, where they are trying to get Sen. Jon Ossoff a second term. Democrats have now won 17 out of 21 (81 percent) of the Senate races in purple states since President Trump first took office in 2017.

But given where Senate Democrats are today, if the party wins every one of the 12 Senate contests in blue states as well as the three in purple states, that would still get them only to 49 seats, two short of a majority. The same winds that will help them in blue and purple states are working strongly against them as they try to pick up at least two seats in red states, like Iowa, Nebraska, or Texas.

What drives the winds in midterm elections is a president’s job approval rating, and President Trump’s numbers are not good, averaging just 41 percent (with 56 percent disapproval) in both the New York Times and the Silver Bulletin averages of major national polls. RealClearPolitics’s average shows 43 percent approval (with 56 percent disapproval).

But the far more important numbers are the party splits. Several high-quality polls released in the last 10 days make this point.

Among just Republicans, Trump’s approval numbers are so strong you might think he was a king, a god, or a hero among his fellow party members. In the most recent Fox News poll, 86 percent of Republicans approved while only 1 percent disapproved. In the NPR/PBS poll conducted by Marist University, 89 percent approved compared to 8 percent who disapproved. Charles Franklin’s latest national poll for Marquette Law School gives Trump an 85 percent approval among his own party, compared to 15 percent who disapprove.

Keep in mind that red states and districts have a disproportionate share of Republican voters, often to the point where a Republican needs no support from Democratic voters to win, making red-state wins for Democrats in Iowa, Nebraska, or Texas even more difficult.

But conversely, among Democrats, that king or god or hero turns into the devil, with just 5 percent approving (95 percent disapprove) in the Fox News poll, 8 percent approving (90 percent disapprove) in the Marist poll, and 5 percent approving (95 percent disapprove) in Marquette.

Because blue states and districts have a disproportionately large share of Democratic voters, often making independent votes superfluous, that works against Republicans in light-blue Senate states like Maine, Minnesota, and New Hampshire.

Among independents, who make up a huge share of the vote in purple states and districts, Trump’s numbers are toxic: 27 percent approve (72 percent disapprove) in the Fox poll, 24 percent approve (71 percent disapprove) in the Marist poll, and 25 percent approve (75 percent disapprove) in Marquette.

Strong crosswinds are at play, providing supportive tail winds for Senate Democrats in blue and purple states, while others work against them as headwinds in red states, making it nearly impossible for the party to regain a Senate majority next year.

At the same time, it’s worth keeping in mind that midterm elections are almost always about the sitting president and are usually a challenge for that president’s party, as there is a strong tendency towards either complacency or disappointment among fellow party members, while the party that lost the presidential race tends to be still angry and highly motivated to turn out in the midterms.

While the election is almost a year away, midterm fundamentals generally don’t change a lot in the year leading up to the election, barring some earth-shattering event. That is always possible, but I think we have a decent idea of where this is going.