Personal? Or strictly business?
In issuing a statement on Ken Paxton's private life, the NRSC shows it's serious about defending Sen. John Cornyn.
Having spent over half a century in and around politics (53 years, to be exact), I thought I had seen just about everything. But no. Things that we would never see in the old days seem to be happening with greater frequency now.
Thursday afternoon, the National Republican Senatorial Committee released a statement from communications director Joanna Rodriguez on Texas state Sen. Angela Paxton’s divorce filing against her husband, state Attorney General Ken Paxton. “What Ken Paxton has put his family through is truly repulsive and disgusting,” read the statement. Not your everyday Capitol Hill press release, to say the least.
Paxton is unquestionably the most controversial figure in Texas politics, and he and his estranged wife come from the MAGA wing of the Republican Party. More to the point, however, the attorney general hopes to unseat Sen. John Cornyn in the March 3 Republican primary.
Cornyn is a highly respected, quite dignified, old-school Republican—a conservative by any rational standard and anything but controversial. In other words, not very MAGA. Cornyn served as the Senate Republican whip (both majority and minority) for a dozen years behind former GOP leader Mitch McConnell, but he was defeated by Sen. John Thune in the race for majority leader last November after McConnell stepped down from the top leadership post. The Republican Conference had three good choices in Sens. Cornyn, Thune, and John Barrasso. But Barrasso dropped back and was easily elected whip, leaving Cornyn as the not-very-odd man out, at least when it came to leadership.
Cornyn, who’s seeking a fifth term, has never had problems getting elected to the Senate. He first won office in 2002 with 55 percent of the vote. In his subsequent reelections, he’s taken 55 percent (2008), 62 percent (2014), and 54 percent (2020). This would likely be an uneventful campaign for Cornyn, but for the fact that the center of gravity in the Texas GOP, and for that matter in the Republican Party in many states, is well to Cornyn’s right—hence, his challenge from the MAGA-aligned attorney general.
Paxton served 10 years in the Texas state House and two years in the state Senate before his election as attorney general in 2014. In 2015, a year after becoming the state’s chief legal officer, Paxton was indicted on securities-fraud charges. The case languished for nine years, during which he was reelected twice, impeached by the state House, and acquitted by the state Senate. In March of 2024, he reached a plea-bargain agreement that required restitution of almost $300,000 but did not require him to step down from his post.
That brings us back to the NRSC. To be very clear, I am not criticizing Rodriguez, the NRSC staff, or its chairman, Sen. Tim Scott. I understand why they did it, but—wow!
If Cornyn is the GOP nominee, he wins the general election easily—period. But virtually all polling shows Paxton ahead in a primary, be it by 9 points, 19 points, or even 22 points. The most reputable survey, conducted by the Tarrance Group for the Senate Leadership Fund (the chief super PAC for Senate Republicans, closely aligned with Majority Leader Thune), showed Paxton’s margin on the lower end of that range, at 10 points.
Given all of Paxton’s baggage, some of that same polling shows that Democrats would have a good shot against Paxton if he’s the nominee. So it’s easy to understand why national GOP leaders have a vested interest in Cornyn winning renomination, in the process saving them a pile of general-election money.
There is another Republican eyeing the race, Rep. Wesley Hunt, but there really isn’t room for him unless Cornyn drops out, which is extremely unlikely to happen, particularly now. Former Rep. Colin Allred, who ran against Sen. Ted Cruz in 2024, is waiting in the wings on the Democratic side and would be in a position to do well, but only against Paxton.
It was a gutsy call for the NRSC. As Michael Corleone said in The Godfather, “It’s not personal, Sonny. It’s strictly business.”