New maps may not be enough to save the House GOP

Independents appear poised to rebel yet again.

For months, President Trump and his White House have mounted a full-court press on Republican governors and GOP-controlled state legislatures in an effort to redraw as many congressional district boundaries as possible.

Democrats have pushed aside their own good-government principles to respond in kind in California, a move that looks likely to offset some of the seats that they can expect to lose next year.

On Friday, Air Force Two touched down in Indianapolis for a previously unannounced visit by Vice President J.D. Vance—his second in three months—to lobby reluctant GOP state legislators to redraw Indiana’s lines. The move contributes to an air of Republican desperation. Clearly they see this as necessary in order to retain their majority in the House, which they currently hold at 219 to 213 with three vacancies. Once all members are elected and sworn in, the chamber will be back to 220-215, putting Democrats just three short of the barest possible majority.

The current Indiana boundaries have yielded a delegation split between seven Republicans and two Democrats. Republicans hope to make the tally eight to one; gaining two seats would require some unusually creative cartography.

Those of us who have watched elections and polling for a long time have had to reckon with a very different set of voting patterns in recent years. Before our current era of hyper-partisanship, it was possible for a president’s approval ratings to soar to great heights and plunge to stomach-churning depths. President George H.W. Bush reached as high as 89 percent in the Gallup Poll after the victory in the first Persian Gulf War, but he sank down to 25 percent when economic troubles hit, a 64-point differential. His son went a point higher to 90 percent in the aftermath of 9/11, later dropping to 25 percent himself, a 65-point difference. President Reagan’s peak was 68 percent, with a valley of 35 percent. President Obama’s low was 38 percent, with a high of 69 percent; and President Clinton’s low point was 37 percent, with a high of 73 percent.

But today things are different. No matter how bad things get, fellow partisans will not abandon their party’s leader, and equally adamant voters of the opposite party will never support him, no matter what. This creates floors much higher than in the old days, but also ceilings much lower. Theoretically, that should make things less volatile.

Not so much. That slice of voters in the middle, while smaller than ever before, is maybe even more malleable than ever. This is especially true when a president or party misinterprets an election, thinking the voters were sending an enthusiastic vote in support of them and their agenda rather than lashing out against the previous incumbent.

It’s this group that should give Republicans pause. Beneath the hood, one can see that President Trump’s support comes almost entirely from his base. Beyond that, things get pretty ugly. In recent polls, we’re seeing twice as many independents disapproving as approving of the job Trump is doing. Many of them thought they were simply casting a vote in 2024 to discontinue the Biden-Harris administration. For them, the last 267 days is not the cruise they signed up for.

Such shifts among independents—especially in key swing states—can have enormous consequences. Witness the seven purple states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Trump won six out of seven in 2016, all but Nevada. Joe Biden won six out of seven in 2020, all but North Carolina. All seven went into Trump’s column in 2024. The House has never been so evenly divided as it has been for the last three elections.

Operationally what does this mean? With the ink not even on paper in some of these states’ redistricting efforts, it is impossible to say with any degree of certainty how this will play out in the House. I am skeptical that Republicans can redraw enough districts to insulate them from what looks like a pretty tough midterm.