Is the Fate of Matt Gaetz the Exception or the Rule?

When former Rep. Matt Gaetz withdrew his name from consideration to be President-elect Trump’s attorney general, the thought “one down, four to go” surely occurred to some Republican members of the Senate. That is, they still must navigate the politically thorny nominations of former Rep. Tulsi Gabbard for director of National Intelligence, Pete Hegseth for Defense secretary, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. for Health and Human Services secretary, and Mehmet Oz for director of the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services.

Trump’s other Cabinet picks are far more conventional and less objectionable, though the choice of outgoing Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer is raising eyebrows from within her own party. Pro-business types point to Chavez-DeRemer’s support of labor on right-to-work and other key labor-management issues.

Still, the Oregonian can probably overcome some policy differences with her fellow Republicans. Gabbard, Hegseth, Kennedy, and Oz are another matter, because it's not just about policy.

Many claim these nominees lack the appropriate credentials to manage a gargantuan bureaucracy,but that's arguably the least of their problems. Like Gaetz, Kennedy faces allegations of both sexual impropriety and illicit drug use; Hegseth is still trying to wave away years-old allegations of sexual assault; both Kennedy and Oz are vulnerable to charges of health quackery; and some suggest that Gabbard is at best an unwitting tool of the Russians, if not a Russian asset. It is doubtful that she could obtain a conventional security clearance. (In a major break from common practice during recent transitions, Team Trump is not utilizing the FBI for background checks, although the relevant congressional committees handling their nominations could seek FBI involvement.)

One of the last things the 47 returning Republican senators and their six new colleagues (David McCormick of Pennsylvania, Jim Justice of West Virginia, Bernie Moreno of Ohio, Tim Sheehy of Montana, John Curtis of Utah, and Jim Banks of Indiana) want to do this early is oppose one of Trump’s key nominees on the floor, knowing it will enrage their party’s MAGA base and perhaps trigger a future primary challenge. Indeed, the most committed MAGA Republicans in the Senate will certainly defer to their leader and back each nominee.

But more centrist or traditional Republicans face an equally unpalatable alternative: supporting the nomination of someone they see as unqualified, objectionable, compromised by a foreign adversary, or some combination of the above. These GOP senators see themselves as conservative Republicans in good standing, almost always supportive of Trump and his agenda, and instinctively believe that anew president deserves, within reason, to pick their own Cabinet members and other key officials.

It's that "within reason" part that is the catch. Are Congress and the judiciary still equal branches of the federal government as the Founders intended? Or has Senate confirmation, outlined in Article II,Section 2, Clause 2 of the Constitution, just become fine print to be ignored?

It's difficult to believe that the Gaetz debacle will be a constructive learning experience for Trump, making him realize that he can’t send just anyone or anything up to Capitol Hill to be rubber-stamped. Yet Senate Republicans are moving heaven and earth to surreptitiously undercut these nominations, in hopes that they withdraw voluntarily or that Trump will pull them.

It is a bit ironic that this quandary is manifesting itself first in the Senate. There is little chance that theSenate will flip in the 2026 midterm elections, given what seats are up for reelection. Democrats have no obvious targets outside of Sens. Susan Collins of Maine and Thom Tillis of North Carolina, and they’ll have to defend some vulnerable members of their own.

No, it is the House that is in real danger. The GOP will carry one of the narrowest majorities in the chamber’s history into a midterm election behind an incumbent whose name will never again be on a ballot and who has little regard for his fellow party members on Capitol Hill. Whichever road they choose on certain nominees in the next few weeks, don't look for the Senate to make House Republicans’ job any easier.

This article was originally published for the National Journal on Nov. 25, 2024.