Have Republicans already bottomed out?

Given how many voters are locked into partisan lanes, there may not be that many more votes for the GOP to lose.

Traverse City, Michigan, known as the Cherry Capital of the World, is a beautiful town. Given all the cherry-picking of polling data and election results we are seeing these days, one might think the political world is filled with Traverse City expats. Whether to buttress a political argument or to drive clicks and views, we see a highly selective use of polling and election results to portray small changes in numbers portrayed as seismic shifts in public opinion.

Of course, reality doesn’t always support such conclusions, but that’s OK; there will be other events coming along that will be portrayed as cataclysmic, or maybe an existential threat. Some never bother to seek out context or nuance; it’s more fun to jump to conclusions or go along with “the vibe.”

We are constantly hearing predictions that the soaring price of gasoline and diesel will cost President Trump and Republicans much more than it has already. But how much more can it hurt?

Now that the Gallup Organization is no longer including presidential approval ratings in its monthly surveys, I’ve lost my benchmark standard. To me it was akin to the Brent and West Texas Intermediate prices on crude oil as the benchmark for energy prices.

A useful alternative measure is the “PollTracker” feature compiled by The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter, which computes a moving average of Trump’s approval numbers from 21 national polls, using only the results of certain polls that meet high methodological standards. CPR subscribers are also allowed to access the moving averages of 11 subgroups.

As of Monday afternoon, the PollTracker showed Trump’s overall job-approval rating to be 40 percent, down a point from Jan. 1 and 7 points below its level of March of last year when it debuted. In analyzing approval ratings, it is useful to “look under the hood” to examine the numbers broken out by partisan affiliation. Among Democrats, Trump’s approval on Monday was at 6 percent, precisely where it was at the beginning of the year. Among Republicans, he pulled 83 percent approval, down 3 points from 86 percent at the beginning of January and 7 points below his 90 percent level of March 2025. Among independents, who make up a disproportionately large segment of the electorate in swing states and districts, Trump’s approval rating was 27 percent, down 3 points from 30 percent at the beginning of the year and 14 points below the 41 percent level in March 2025. It’s a decent bet that the vast majority of that 27 percent are independents who lean Republican and reliably vote that way. In other words, not many more independents are still likely to shift from approval to disapproval; most who still approve are closet Republicans.

A few weeks ago, this column suggested that Trump could pump free gas and few Democrats would approve of his overall performance. Meanwhile, the price could double and not many Republicans would abandon him. Identity, social and cultural issues, and negative partisanship come into play. For many Republicans, supporting any Democrat would be an act of treason. Not voting is a much more likely byproduct of disaffection.

So how is that translating into votes? In the latest ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll, Democrats had a lead on the generic ballot test of 5 points, 49 to 44 percent. Among only Democratic respondents, Democrats were ahead 98 to 1 percent. Among Republicans, GOP candidates were ahead 97 to 2 percent. Among independents, Democrats led 52 to 32 percent.

The Fox News poll last month showed very similar numbers, with Democrats ahead 52-46 percent. Among Democratic voters, they led 97 to 3 percent. Among Republicans, GOP candidates ran ahead of Democrats 92 to 7 percent. Among independents, Democrats led 57-41. Basically, the partisans on each side are locked in, unlikely to move, with Democrats having about as big a lead as they can get once independents are factored in.

The variable, of course, is turnout. At least this year, Democrats have an abundance of energy; it’s Republicans this time with a lethargy problem.

This past week’s U.S. Supreme Court decision in Louisiana v. Callais is obviously important, although not likely to be the determinative factor in this year’s fight for control of the House. It’s more likely to be consequential in the 2028 and 2030 elections. Of the 54 members of the Congressional Black Caucus, 25 hold seats in states that voted Democratic in the last three presidential elections and have Democratic governors.

Of the 25 states that voted for Trump in each of the last three elections, 13 have no Black members of Congress at all; a 14th, Tennessee, has one majority-Black district, but it is represented by a white Democrat, Rep. Steve Cohen.

Realistically, any Black members in Louisiana, as well as Florida, Alabama, and Missouri, should be worried; others, much less so.

Few would seriously argue that this won’t be a bad year for Republicans. The question is, how bad will it be? My theory is that very few Republicans running in blue, Democratic-tilting states and districts are likely to win. In purple, swing states and districts, where Trump is extremely unpopular, the electoral mortality rate for GOP candidates will be extremely high, with few survivors. But in most red, Republican-tilting states and districts, the loss rate for GOP candidates might be pretty low. Sure, a very low Republican turnout, which I think is likely, will cost some Republican candidates elections in very light red states, but past a certain point, it will take Republicans actually defecting and voting Democratic, which as we’ve already determined, does not happen much anymore.

To the extent that any appreciable number of Republicans vote for a Democrat, it is likely to be in gubernatorial races rather than contests for the Senate. Keep an eye on Iowa and Ohio. The last time Democrats won either governorship was in 2006. Gubernatorial races are a bit less rigidly partisan than federal races, so if lightning strikes, it’s more likely to hit in state races, particularly where one party has been occupying the state Capitol for, say, 20 years, and voters are in the mood for change.