GOP senators don't lose in red states anymore

Neither do Democrats in blue states. At the beginning of this century, that wasn't true.

This column last week made the case that despite frantic efforts by Republicans to redraw congressional district boundaries in as many states as possible, Democrats’ chances of recapturing a House majority were better than most people realize. Though there are fewer competitive districts and swing voters than there used to be, there are enough of each to make it difficult for a party with an incumbent president with approval ratings among independents in the low to-mid 30s.

Looking at the Senate this week, those who liked the thrust of last week’s column may not like this one as much; those who found last week’s less than palatable might like this one more. It will be a lot more difficult for Democrats to score a net gain of four seats to capture control than most people think. Even taking it in 2028 will be quite a feat, possibly contingent upon winning the presidential race, thus reducing the number of net seats needed by one.

The arithmetic works like this: There are 24 red states, which now reliably send 48 Republican senators to Washington. With the losses last year of Sherrod Brown in Ohio and Jon Tester in Montana, and Joe Manchin’s open seat in West Virginia, all 48 now have GOP members. There are 19 blue states, which currently send 37 Democrats to D.C., Sen. Susan Collins of Maine being the sole Republican in the bunch.

That leaves the seven purple states with their 14 seats. Democrats already hold 10 of them, which narrows their potential blue and purple opportunity list to just Collins and four GOP seats in purple states. Two are in North Carolina—one open, where Sen. Thom Tillis is not running again, the other held by Sen. Ted Budd, who is not up for reelection until 2028. Sen. Ron Johnson holds one in Wisconsin, up in 2028. Sen. Dave McCormick in Pennsylvania holds the fourth, but he’s not up until 2030. So this cycle and next, Democrats have to win four seats out of the total of five that aren’t in red states. That leaves little margin for error over four years.

So many of the gains for each side this century have come from consolidating seats of their hue that the other side had defied political gravity to occupy. For Republicans, the bulk of their gains over the last two decades have come from defeating Democrats in red states, either incumbents or in open seats. These have included: Alabama (Doug Jones in 2020), Alaska (Mark Begich in 2014), Arkansas (Mark Pryor in 2014 and Blanche Lincoln in 2010), Indiana (Joe Donnelly in 2018 and Evan Bayh’s open seat in 2010), Florida (Bill Nelson in 2018 and Bob Graham’s open seat in 2004), Iowa (Tom Harkin’s open seat in 2014), Louisiana (Mary Landrieu in 2014 and John Breaux’s open seat in 2004), Missouri (Claire McCaskill in 2018 and Jean Carnahan in 2002), Montana (John Walsh’s seat in 2014, formerly held by Max Baucus), Nebraska (Ben Nelson’s open seat in 2012), North Dakota (Heidi Heitkamp in 2018 and Byron Dorgan's open seat in 2010), South Carolina (Fritz Hollings's open seat in 2004), South Dakota (Tim Johnson’s open seat in 2014 and Tom Daschle in 2004), and West Virginia (the open Manchin seat in 2024 and Jay Rockefeller’s open seat in 2014).

Democrats have cleared out Republicans from all of their states save Maine. Over that same period of time Democrats have grabbed back Colorado (Cory Gardner in 2020, Wayne Allard’s open seat in 2008, and Ben Nighthorse Campbell’s open seat in 2004), Delaware (Bill Roth in 2000), Illinois (Mark Kirk in 2016 and Peter Fitzgerald’s open seat in 2004), Maine (Olympia Snowe’s open seat in 2012 to Angus King, who caucuses with Democrats), Massachusetts (Scott Brown in 2012), Minnesota (Rod Grams in 2000), New Hampshire (Kelly Ayotte in 2016 and John Sununu in 2008), New Mexico (Pete Domenici’s open seat in 2008), Oregon (Gordon Smith in 2008), Rhode Island (Lincoln Chafee in 2006), Virginia (John Warner’s open seat in 2008 and George Allen in 2006), and Washington (Slade Gorton in 2000).

Now that partisan order has been restored to the map, the action is almost always in the purple states.

For fun, I looked at the 13 elections that have been held this century, starting in 2000.

Since 2000, 115 elected Republicans in red states won reelection, and just six did not. One way to look at it is that 74 Republicans were reelected in red states since the last one, Alaska’s Ted Stevens, lost in 2008. Two years earlier, Democrats defeated three elected incumbents in red states: Jim Talent in Missouri, Conrad Burns in Montana, and Mike DeWine in Ohio. Prior to that, they knocked off Tim Hutchinson in Arkansas in 2002 and John Ashcroft in Missouri 2000. But notice how much more often that occurred in the first decade of the century, and how little in the last 10 years.

During that same period since 2000, 110 elected Democratic incumbents in blue states have been reelected. Just two weren’t—Mark Udall in Colorado in 2014 and Chuck Robb in Virginia in 2000.

To be fair, we are using the red, blue, and purple delineations that have been in place for the last three elections. Many of these turnovers came at a time when the states in question may have had different hues.

The takeaway from all of this is that there is no reason to believe that Democrats will be picking off many, if any, red seats from the GOP, and vice versa, save for the most extreme situations. That is why Democrats are watching Texas so closely—while they have no chance of unseating John Cornyn, if Attorney General Ken Paxton wins the GOP primary, that would create the rare opportunity for a red seat to go blue.