For all their troubles, Republicans won't suffer from exposure
Democrats already have a sizable share of the House; there are only so many vulnerable Republican seats for them to pick off.
It is easy to understand why so many people are convinced that the November midterm elections will turn into a bloodbath for the Republican Party. President Trump, his administration, and congressional Republicans are taking incoming fire from every direction, particularly on inflation, the war in Iran, the bulldozing of the White House East Wing, and the activities of immigration agents, to mention a few. The nature of midterm elections and the near-inevitability of House losses for the party holding the White House would seem to guarantee a complete debacle for the GOP.
But anyone arguing “Trump and his party are done now” forget how many times we’ve heard this since his ride down the golden Trump Tower escalator in 2015, starting with the release of the Billy Bush tapes shortly before the 2016 election.
In my view, Democrats’ capturing a House majority is close to inevitable (the Senate is a different matter), but the extent of their gains in the House is far from clear. In President Obama’s first midterm election in 2010, his party lost 64 seats in the House, a dozen more than the 54-seat loss that Democrats suffered in Bill Clinton’s first midterm in 1994. Trump’s only midterm thus far, in 2018, resulted in a 42-seat loss. The post-World War II average midterm outcome was a net loss of 26 seats.
There are two big reasons why Democratic gains are not likely to be on that kind of a scale this time.
The first reason is exposure. The more seats a majority party has entering a midterm election cycle, the greater its exposure to losses, particularly if it holds many seats that were in the opposition party’s column in fairly recent years. Democrats entered the 1994 election cycle with 258 seats and the 2010 midterm with 257 seats. Republicans began the 2018 cycle with 241 seats. But Republicans this time are going in with one of the barest majorities ever, having actually lost two seats in 2024 to claim a majority of just 220 seats. The country is very evenly divided, and the current House split reflects that; they don’t have an inordinate amount of exposure.
The second reason is that there is a clear delineation of where Trump is a real drag on GOP candidates and where he probably isn’t. A national CBS News/YouGov poll released on Sunday explains what some are missing. Trump’s overall job-approval rating of 39 percent (61 percent disapprove) is consistent with most other national polls released over the last few weeks. His approval rating is just 4 percent among Democrats (96 percent disapprove) and 29 percent among independents (71 percent disapprove). Among Republicans, however, his approval rating is 87 percent (13 percent disapprove).
What about his performance so far on issues that are thought to be liabilities? On handling inflation, his overall approval is a lowly 31 percent (69 percent disapprove), just 5 percent among Democrats (95 percent disapprove), and 79 percent among independents. Among Republicans, 71 percent approve of his handling of inflation, while 29 percent disapprove.
On handling the economy, his overall approval was 35 percent (65 percent disapprove); among just Democrats, it was 5 percent (95 percent disapprove), and among independents, 24 percent (76 percent disapprove). But among Republicans, it’s 78 percent (22 percent disapprove).
What about handling Iran, the issue that some suggest is splintering the Republican Party and MAGA world? Just 36 percent of Americans approve (64 percent disapprove), including 4 percent of Democrats (96 percent disapprove) and 27 percent of independents (73 percent disapprove). Yet 81 percent of Republicans approve (19 percent disapprove).
Trump’s best issue of the four measured was immigration, with 44 percent of Americans approving and 56 percent disapproving. Among just Democrats, approval was 8 percent (disapproval 92 percent); among independents, it was 36 percent (disapproval 64 percent). But among just Republicans, 91 percent approved (9 percent disapproved).
While handling gasoline prices specifically was not tested, it wouldn’t be too much of an exaggeration to suggest that the current price could double and most Republicans would still say they approve. On the other hand, Trump could personally dispense free gasoline and the overwhelming majority of Democrats would still disapprove.
So how does this translate into midterm-election results? In blue states and districts, where voters are disproportionately Democratic, a bloodbath could be an understatement. In the few purple states and districts that have a disproportionately large share of independents, and where Democrats and Republicans are roughly evenly split, it would still translate into a fairly ugly situation for the incumbent party. But Republicans have to defend very few House or Senate seats in such challenging environments.
At least under the lines in place in 2024, the GOP is defending only three seats in districts that Kamala Harris won; and only one Senate seat in a state that Harris carried. Even the number of Republican-held seats in states and districts that Trump won by narrow margins is tiny. This puts the odds of a blue wave, with Democrats scoring more seats than the post-war average of 26, quite low. This also makes it very difficult for Democrats to capture Senate seats in states that Trump won handily.
Consider two things. First, our elections are binary; one major party wins, the other loses. So if Democrats merely beat the point spread in a given state or district, it’s useless if they don’t actually win. Close doesn’t count. Second, for a deep-red seat to flip, how many Republicans would have to cast their ballots for a Democrat?
The Democratic Party’s base this year is energized to the point of near militancy; it is Republicans who must worry about complacency, a lack of enthusiasm, or a lack of intensity. In states that are close to the edge, that makes victory quite doable for Democrats. But a broader victory has to start near the edge, meaning purple states and districts, and the lightest of light-red states and districts.