Elections are further away than they appear

Even a scandal like the Epstein files, which sucks up all the oxygen in Washington, is unlikely to affect an election almost 500 days away.

It is still unfathomable to me that so many people think an election 463 days from now will be materially affected by this sordid Jeffrey Epstein mess. Political events, even seemingly big ones, tend to be the opposite of the great scene in the original Jurassic Park movie when Bob Peck’s character, driving an SUV, is being chased by a rapidly closing Tyrannosaurus rex. In the rearview mirror, he sees the words, “Objects in mirror are closer than they appear.” In politics, things often seem in the moment much bigger than they turn out to be weeks, months, or, in this case, over a year later.

These days, Republicans and GOP-leaning independents are likely to vote for GOP candidates about 95 percent of the time. Ditto for Democrats and those independents with Democratic predilections. Over half of the remaining tenth—those pure independents—will probably not cast a ballot at all. There is very little you can tell Americans about Donald Trump that will significantly affect their overall opinion of him; they have already heard, read, or seen millions of things, and thoughts about him are pretty well established.

Last week this column took to task journalists who over-hype the potential political impact of the Epstein story, partly because there is a significant difference between those who have an opinion about a topical issue or event and those who act upon that opinion, particularly when the event occurs long before an election. The new Wall Street Journal poll, conducted July 16-20, showed that 76 percent of voters (including 64 percent of Republicans) thought the Justice Department was hiding critical information about the scandal, yet 88 percent of Republicans still approved of the job Donald Trump was doing as president, with 66 percent strongly approving. Among all voters in the WSJ poll, Trump’s approval was 46 percent, with 34 percent strongly approving.

The Gallup poll, with a longer interviewing period of July 7-21, showed Trump’s overall approval rating among adults a good bit lower at 37 percent, with 58 percent disapproving. Yet among Republicans, the approval rating still checked in at 89 percent, with disapproval at just 7 percent. In the July 18-21 Fox News poll, Trump’s overall approval rating was 46 percent (disapproval was 54 percent). Among Republicans, it was 88 percent approval (12 percent disapproval). The share of Republicans who strongly approved of Trump’s job performance was 54 percent.

The notion that the Republican Party is going to allow this nauseating matter to affect how they look at Trump ignores virtually all of the evidence in the 10-plus years since he rode down the golden Trump Tower escalator to announce his candidacy. This is not to suggest that I think Republicans will hold onto their House majority; I suspect they won’t. But the loss likely won’t be over this.

Will it be about money? Given the enormous amount of money circulating in American politics on both sides of the aisle these days, neither side is likely to lose control of the House or Senate due to a lack of funds—the law of diminishing returns on the effectiveness of money kicks in pretty early. Keep in mind that more than $1 billion was spent on House races in 2023 and 2024, with the final count showing a net change of just two seats, representing less than half a percent of House seats.

This country is evenly divided, which often leads to an evenly split House. Additionally, House races have become increasingly close to being parliamentary—who the candidates are is of less importance than the party they represent. Among the tiny slice of voters in the middle, when they do vote, they are far more likely to vote against a candidate than for someone.

There is a bit more wiggle room in the Senate. Former Gov. Roy Cooper’s announcement earlier today that he will run for the seat being vacated by Thom Tillis in North Carolina now puts the pressure on Republicans to nominate a candidate who can win a good slice of those pure independents. In other words, unlike what they did in the gubernatorial race in 2024, when they nominated Mark Robinson, in many ways the epitome of those candidates I describe as “exotic and potentially problematic.” North Carolina is one of the seven “purple” swing states, right in the middle, but it is the only one of the seven that did not vote for either Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, or Kamala Harris. In 2016, Trump won all but Nevada. In 2020, Biden won all but North Carolina. In 2024, Trump swept all seven.

The next big shoe to drop is when Gov. Janet Mills announces whether she will take on GOP Sen. Susan Collins in Maine. If Mills does run, those two Senate races will be of enormous importance, although who Republican primary voters in Georgia select to challenge Democrat Jon Ossoff will matter a lot too. Few swing voters remain, but they still significantly influence election results amid a polarized electorate.

My advice is to ignore hyperventilating journalists who see every event as enormously consequential. Even if they can’t keep any perspective, it doesn’t mean that you can’t.