A unified theory of economic attitudes

Minority voters were among the first to sour on Biden's economy. Right there with them are men, who are falling far behind women in educational attainment.

For both psephologists and everyday, armchair students of polls, the period leading into a new president’s 100th day in office is akin to Thanksgiving, with a veritable feast of polls that range across the quality spectrum.

Looking through them all, the best argument that President Trump’s backers can point to is the complete solidarity of fellow Republicans: Just when it seemed that his numbers couldn’t go any higher among the party faithful, they did. In fact, every time he faces adversity, his numbers in the GOP base harden even more.

Yet while Trump’s numbers are not “cratering,” as some in the media have claimed, they have dropped in a measurable way, even on his onetime strengths of handling the economy in general and inflation in particular. The issue that provided so much buoyancy during his first term in office and made voters during President Biden’s term feel almost nostalgic for the previous four years is now becoming a liability.

The resurrection of inflation, largely dormant for 30 years until the late spring and early summer of 2021, combined with the interest-rate hikes that were necessary to contain it, combined to create a 20 percent spike in the cost of living over Biden’s tenure.

It was anger over the cost of living that put Trump back in the White House, and notwithstanding his claims on the campaign trail, those costs will not be coming down. Just as the Biden White House’s 2021 assurances that inflation would be just “transitory” stuck in voters’ minds, so will the current occupant’s claims that he would bring down the cost of living starting on Day One.

From Trump’s first days running for office during the summer of 2015, his argument has been that as a successful businessman, he has an innate understanding of business and the economy superior to that of any career politician.

We’re seeing that now put to the test, as voters fret not just about how the economy is doing, but how their economy is doing.

We’ve already witnessed the sagging stock market. But the anxiety is starting to trickle down to lower-income Americans. According to data compiled by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia and reported by Torsten Slok, chief economist for Apollo Global Management, the share of Americans paying only the minimum required on their credit-card balances is now at a record-high level.

That issue alone can’t remove Trump from office between now and Jan. 20, 2029, but it can certainly make things very difficult for anyone wearing his team’s jersey in a competitive state or district between now and then.

Republicans have been ecstatic and Democrats despondent about the shifts in voting patterns of certain groups from blue to red. In the 2024 VoteCast/NORC exit poll conducted for AP, Fox News, PBS, and The Wall Street Journal, among African American men there was a 13-point drop in Democratic support, from 87 to 74 percent. Among Latino men, it was a 9-point drop, 59 to 50 percent. Nonwhites without a college degree saw an 8-point decline, 73 to 65 percent. Latino women dropped from 66 to 59 percent, the same as with noncollege men, from 44 to 37 percent. Among all nonwhites without a college degree, Democratic support dropped 5 points, 74 to 69 percent.

Economic vulnerability is the pattern that cuts across all these data. Those groups with the largest proportion of lower-income voters saw the greatest drop-off in support for the Democratic presidential nominee, from Biden to Kamala Harris. That’s why I find it so astonishing that Democrats can’t seem to wrap their arms around this loss.

The gender element is particularly interesting and may play a role in what we have been seeing. According to a Georgetown University study, a bachelor’s degree is worth $2.8 million—someone with a BA or BS will likely make 84 percent more than someone with just a high school diploma. Other research shows similar income patterns associated with educational attainment.

Now consider research from the American Institute for Boys and Men: In 1970, 59 percent of bachelor’s degrees went to men; in 2021, just 42 percent. In 1970, 57 percent of associate degrees went to men; in 2021, 37 percent. For master’s degrees, the drop was from 61 to 38 percent. Those earning PhDs saw a whopping 45-point drop, from 90 percent male in 1970 to 45 percent in 2021.

Today there are 2.4 million more women on college campuses than men, 8.9 million to 6.5 million. In 2022, women were 9 percentage points more likely to be enrolled in college in the fall after high school graduation than men. Experts say that this trend has been developing for a long time. We’re beginning to see the social and political impact.

Those with higher income levels have the luxury of being concerned about the environment and cultural issues, but toward the bottom, getting by from paycheck to paycheck or one grocery-store visit to the next takes precedence.

This could explain a lot.